Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
